On 21 March 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep
the key rate at 21.00% per annum. Current inflationary pressures have decreased but remain high, especially underlying ones. Domestic demand growth is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services. Nevertheless, lending growth remains subdued, and households’ propensity to save remains high. The Bank of Russia estimates that the achieved tightness of monetary conditions creates the necessary prerequisites for returning inflation to the target in 2026. Achieving the inflation target will require a long period of maintaining tight monetary conditions in the economy. The Bank of Russia will continue to assess the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations. If disinflation dynamics do not ensure achieving the inflation target, the Bank of Russia will consider raising the key rate. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 7.0–8.0% in 2025, return to 4.0% in 2026 and stay at the target further on.